Andrew Korybko gave an extended interview to the newspaper “Farheekhtegan” about the US’ Hybrid War on Iran, specifically emphasizing the urgent need for the Islamic Republic to prioritize the creation of the Golden Ring of Multipolar Great Powers as the most realistic form of sanctions relief under these increasingly difficult conditions.
- How can regional countries help alleviate the sanctions pressure on Iran?
The best option for Iran is to immediately intensify relations with all of its neighbors, specifically Russia, Turkey, Iraq, and Pakistan, but with a view to multilateralizing them through the same integrational platform. The most realistic starting point would be to revive the Old Cold War-era CENTO but in a multipolar economic format and expand it to include Russia as an obvious replacement for the UK. The larger vision to be pursued should be the Golden Ring of Multipolar Great Powers between Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Russia, and China, with an emphasis on the first three mentioned Muslim countries plus Iraq in order to establish a belt of stability along the South Eurasian Rimland. There are obvious limits to how far and fast these interconnected structures can develop given the vulnerability that certain members may have to the US’ sanctions pressure, but it should nevertheless be urgently prioritized by Iran as soon as possible.
- How likely is it that the US will attack Iran?
Trump has mastered the so-called “madman theory” of feigning craziness for calculated strategic purposes similar to what Nixon did during the Old Cold War but in a much more believable way given his reality TV and social media experience. While a war by miscalculation or one provoked by rogue “deep state” factions through false flags can never be fully discounted, it looks unlikely that such a scenario will transpire. Instead, Trump is resorting to bombastic threats in order to scare his country’s regional vassal states into buying more American arms, as well as manipulatively make other ones elsewhere in Eurasia believe that the US will staunchly support them against Russia and China too when the time is right.
- How does the Trump Administration’s use of economic pressure differ from its predecessors’ weaponization of political and humanitarian issues?
Trump’s use of sanctions as his administration’s premier Hybrid War weapon is actually much more effective than anything that his predecessors wielded because it fully exploits America’s role as the world’s most important economy and the fact that the dollar is still by far the world’s top reserve currency. Simply put, while sanctions might not have that direct of an impact on countries largely disconnected from the American-run global economy, their real value is in getting others to comply with them through the threat of so-called “secondary sanctions” aimed at punishing those who defy its primary ones.
Practically no Western company and most Eastern ones too to be frank want to lose access to the American marketplace or have sanctions applied against them in response that thenceforth make them “untouchable” by their peers for the very same reason. The cumulative effect of this strategy is that it aims to achieve the almost complete economic isolation of its primary target, which is intended to collapse its economy and trigger a self-sustaining cycle of domestic unrest through Color Revolutions, military coup attempts, and the onset of Unconventional Warfare (terrorism, insurgence, rebellions, etc).
- What should Iran do in response?
Iran must immediately talk to its main regional and global partners in order to see which of their companies are willing to defy America’s sanctions regime and accept its resultant consequences, though it should be forewarned that its “friends” might put pressure on it to offer them lopsided economic deals in exchange for taking on such enormous risks. While unfair, Iran might be compelled to compromise and agree to this in some instances if the US’ sanctions pressure is becoming unbearable and it desperately needs a sanctions valve as soon as possible. That’s why the interconnected Multipolar CENTO and Golden Ring concepts are such valuable platforms because they could bring all relevant stakeholders together at the same time to bargain between themselves and hopefully facilitate a solution for Iran sooner than if they hadn’t assembled through those structures at all.
- Why won’t the US invade Iran like it did Iraq?
Launching a large-scale conventional assault on Iran like it did against Iraq would be unacceptably costly in all senses — military, economic, political, strategic, etc. Iran has the capabilities to inflict massive retaliatory damage to America’s regional bases and aircraft carriers, “Israel”, and the Gulf Kingdoms, which is why the US understands that going to war with it would be a fight to the death for all parties involved, something that its “Israeli” and Gulf allies aren’t prepared for. That said, if the US was able to neutralize Iran’s missile capabilities which act as its means of ensuring “Mutually Assured Destruction” through the massive rollout of anti-missile systems in the region, then it might feel confident enough to strike first if it thinks that any second/retaliatory strike could realistically be dealt with.
- What is the US trying to achieve through its Hybrid War on Iran?
Iran is the most powerful regional country in the Mideast because of the combination of its conventional and unconventional capabilities. Its standard military forces and supplementary IRGC are fearsome enough to make its adversaries think twice about striking it, whereas its far-reaching network of influence through the Resistance is capable of striking behind enemy lines if the need ever arises. In addition, it’s actually this second-mentioned capability that the US is most afraid of because it ensures that the US-“Israeli”-Gulf trilateral alliance is unable to fully control the Mideast, hence the need to destabilize the Resistance’s strongest member through the sanctions-driven Hybrid War.
The timing of this campaign isn’t random either because Trump knows that he must first weaken Iran if his so-called “Deal of the Century” is to stand any chance of even partially succeeding once it’s officially rolled out later this summer. From the American “wishful thinking” perspective, the Iranian people’s domestic resistance might finally crack under the right amount of pressure, therefore prompting the government to capitulate to the US’ pressure campaign and enact the regional concessions that are demanded of it, though the moment that happens, it should be expected that the US will only intensify the pressure on its rival in order to take advantage of its weakness and attempt to pull off its long-sought-after regime change against it.
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